Economic Week Ahead: May 06 – 11, 2024

Monday, May 06, 2024

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The PMI monthly Composite Reports on Manufacturing and Services are based on surveys of over 300 business executives in private sector manufacturing companies and also 300 private sector services companies. Data is usually released on the third working day of each month. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Replies from larger companies have a greater impact on the final index numbers than those from small companies. Results are presented by question asked, showing the percentage of respondents reporting an improvement, deterioration or no change since the previous month. From these percentages, an index is derived: a level of 50.0 signals no change since the previous month, above 50.0 signals an increase (or improvement), below 50.0 a decrease (or contraction).

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Tuesday, May 07, 2024

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reports its decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the AUD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the AUD.

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The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Construction Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by construction firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the construction sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the construction sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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The Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) provides the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) near-term perspective on energy markets. Each month, the STEO provides forecasts through the end of the next calendar year for consumption, supply, trade, and prices across major fuel types. In addition, the STEO provides in-depth market analysis for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas markets. Although its emphasis is on U.S. energy markets, the STEO also includes forecasts for certain international liquid fuels markets.

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Wednesday, May 08, 2024

The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

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The Central Bank of Brazil’s (BCB) Monetary Policy Committee publishes its decision on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

Thursday, May 09, 2024

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Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the Bank Rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely because short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

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The figures displayed in the calendar represent the yield on the Treasury Bond auctioned.

U.S. Treasury Bonds have maturities from ten up to 30 years. Governments issue treasuries to borrow money to cover the gap between the amount they receive in taxes and the amount they spend to refinance existing debt and/or to raise capital. The rate on a Treasury Bond represents the return an investor will receive by holding the bond for its entire duration. All bidders receive the same rate at the highest accepted bid.

Yield fluctuations should be monitored closely as an indicator of the government debt situation. Investors compare the average rate at auction to the rate at previous auctions of the same security.

Friday, May 10, 2024

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

Saturday, May 11, 2024

This release measures the change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses. Borrowing and spending are closely correlated with consumer confidence.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

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