Economic Week Ahead: Jun 30 – Jul 06, 2024

Sunday, 30 June, 2024

Every five years EU citizens choose who represents them in the European Parliament, the directly-elected institution that defends their interests in the EU decision-making process. Countries in the EU have different voting traditions and each one may decide on the exact election day within a four-day span, from Thursday to Sunday (when most countries hold their elections). The allocation of seats is laid down in the European treaties. It takes into account the size of the population of each country, with smaller countries getting more seats than strict proportionality would imply.

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This is annual projection from each quarter’s perspective. Japanese Fiscal Year covers from April to March in the following year. Every quarter the respondents give their forecast values for the Fiscal Year, starting from March survey whichis before the next fiscal year starts.

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Business Conditions, large enterprises, manufacturing, actual result. Respondingenterprises are asked to choose one alternative among three as the best descriptor of prevailing conditions, excluding seasonal factors at the time of the survey and three months hence. For Business Conditions, it’s judgment of general business conditions of the responding enterprise, primarily in light of individual profits. The alternatives are, (1) Favorable (2) Not so favorable (3)Unfavorable. Diffusion Index is calculated by subtracting the percentage share of enterprisesresponding ‘(3) Unfavorable’ from that of ‘(1) Favorable’.

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The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results conducted on manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY , while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.

Monday, 01 July , 2024

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. As Germany has the largest output of any country in the euro-zone, the European Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies across the United States. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), a diffusion index is calculated by adding the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with differing weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Report on Business is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of purchasing and supply executives in over 400 industrial companies. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers Inventories, Employment, and Prices), this report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction and the diffusion index. Responses are raw data and are never changed.

The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.

The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%.

The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Tuesday, 02 July , 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell (Feb. 2018 – Feb. 2026) is to speak. As head of the Fed, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the U.S. dollar’s value than any other person. Traders closely watch his speeches as they are often used to drop hints regarding future monetary policy.

Wednesday, 03 July, 2024

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The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants. 
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.

The NMI is a composite index based on the diffusion indexes for four of the indicators with equal weights: Business Activity (seasonally adjusted), New Orders (seasonally adjusted), Employment (seasonally adjusted) and Supplier Deliveries.

A reading above 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates the non-manufacturing sector is generally contracting. Given the large proportion of the US economy engaged in the services sector, this report offers insights into the health of the overall US economy.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) (also known as the ISM Services PMI) report on Business, is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questions asked of more than 370 purchasing and supply executives in over 62 different industries.

The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

The Prices Paid diffusion index is one of a number of indicators pointing to the degree of inflationary pressures in the economy.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes are a detailed record of the committee’s policy-setting meeting held about three weeks earlier. The minutes offer detailed insights regarding the FOMC’s stance on monetary policy, so currency traders carefully examine them for clues regarding the outcome of future interest rate decisions.

Thursday, 04 July, 2024

Friday, 05, 2024

The Federal Reserve Act requires the Federal Reserve Board to submit written reports to Congress containing discussions of “the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future.” This report–called the Monetary Policy Report–is submitted semiannually to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and to the House Committee on Financial Services, along with testimony from the Federal Reserve Board Chair.

Saturday, 06 July, 2024

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