Economic Week Ahead: June 23 – 29, 2024

Sunday, 23 June, 2024

This report includes the BOJ’s projection for inflation and economic growth. It is scheduled 8 times per year, about 10 days after the Monetary Policy Statement is released.

Monday, 24 June , 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

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German Business Expectations uses survey responses to gauge the expectations of businesses in Germany for the next six months. It is forward-looking sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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The German Current Assessment uses survey results from businesses across Germany to gauge sentiment regarding current business conditions in Germany. It is a sub-index of the German Ifo Business Climate Index.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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The German Ifo Business Climate Index uses survey results to gauge the sentiment of businesses across Germany. The index measure business perceptions of both current and future German business conditions. It is a composite index based on a survey of manufacturers, builders, wholesalers and retailers compiled by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm ET, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm ET, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm ET, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm ET, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.

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The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report provides a breakdown of the net positions for “”non-commercial”” (speculative) traders in U.S. futures markets.
All data corresponds to positions held by participants primarily based in Chicago and New York futures markets.
The Commitments of Traders report is considered an indicator for analysing market sentiment and many speculative traders use the data to help them decide whether or not to take a long or short position.
Commitments of Traders (COT) data is released each Friday at 3:30pm ET, pending a holiday in the U.S., to reflect the commitments of traders on the prior Tuesday.

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Tuesday, 25 June, 2024

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. When consumers are optimistic, they tend to spend more which increases consumption and overall economic growth.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Christopher Kent (since February 2012) is to speak. As a key adviser to RBA board members, who decide short term interest rates, Kent has considerable influence over the value of the Australian dollar. Traders scrutinize his public engagements for clues regarding future monetary policy.

His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

Wednesday, 26 June, 2024

New Home Sales measures the annualised number of new single-family homes that were sold during the prior month. When it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales, this report tends to have more impact because the two reports are highly correlated.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD

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The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

Thursday, 27 June, 2024

Durable Goods Orders reports the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

Friday, 28 June, 2024

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) gauges the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced within the economy. It is the most comprehensive measure of economic activity and an important indicator of economic health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Unlike the fixed-weight CPI, PCE is chain-weighted and thus adjusts to changing consumer behaviour. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and thus receives greater attention.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

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The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms around the Chicago area. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some assistance in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Federal Reserve Act requires the Federal Reserve Board to submit written reports to Congress containing discussions of “the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future.” This report–called the Monetary Policy Report–is submitted semiannually to the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs and to the House Committee on Financial Services, along with testimony from the Federal Reserve Board Chair.

Saturday, 29 June, 2024

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY , while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.

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