Economic Week Ahead: July 28– August 3, 2024

Sunday, 30 July 2024

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic activity and is a key indicator of economic health. The quarterly percent changes in GDP show the growth rate of the economy as a whole.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR.

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The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services from the perspective of the consumer. As Germany has the largest output of any country in the euro-zone, the European Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR

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Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence consumers have in the economy. When consumers are optimistic, they tend to spend more which increases consumption and overall economic growth.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides an early indication each month of economic activities in the Chinese manufacturing sector. It is compiled by China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing (CFLP) and China Logistics Information Centre (CLIC), based on data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).Li & Fung Research Centre is responsible for drafting and disseminating the English PMI report. Every month questionnaires are sent to over 700 manufacturing enterprises all over China. The data presented here is compiled from the enterprises responses about their purchasing activities and supply situations. The PMI should be compared to other economic data sources when used in decision-making.
A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the CNY , while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the CNY.

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Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board publishes its decision about where to set the target overnight rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

Wednesday, 31 July 2024

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the prices of goods and services contained in a basket of consumer items. The Central bank pays very close attention to this figure in its role of maintaining price stability.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the EUR, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the EUR

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ADP is performs payroll services for its clients. The ADP National Employment Report is a measure of the monthly change in non-farm, private employment, based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. The release, two days ahead of government data, is used as a predictor of the government’s Labour Market Report.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD

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The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms around the Chicago area. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. The Chicago PMI can be of some assistance in forecasting the ISM manufacturing PMI.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

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Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the target interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as relative short term interest rates are a primary factor in currency valuation.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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Thursday, 1 August 2024

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Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the Bank Rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely because short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the GBP, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the GBP.

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Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

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The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The diffusion index includes the percent of positive responses plus one-half of those responding the same (considered positive). The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted to allow for the effects of repetitive intra-year variations resulting primarily from normal differences in weather conditions, various institutional arrangements, and differences attributable to non-moveable holidays. All seasonal adjustment factors are supplied by the U.S. Department of Commerce and are subject annually to relatively minor changes when conditions warrant them.
The PMI is a composite index based on the seasonally adjusted diffusion indices for five of the indicators with varying weights: New Orders –30% Production –25% Employment –20% Supplier Deliveries –15% and Inventories — 10%.
The Prices Paid subcategory is a diffusion index calculated by adding the percent of responses indicating they paid more for inputs plus one-half of those responding that they paid the same for inputs. The resulting single index number is then seasonally adjusted.

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The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories report measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by U.S. firms. Inventory levels influence petroleum prices, impacting inflation. If crude inventories increase more than expected, it suggests weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. Conversely, if the increase is less than expected, it indicates stronger demand and is bullish for prices. Similarly, a smaller-than-expected decline in inventories is bearish, while a larger-than-expected decline is bullish for crude prices.

Friday, August 2, 2024

Average Hourly Earnings measures the change in the amount of money businesses pay for labour, excluding the agricultural sector.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index assesses business conditions among manufacturers in the Federal Reserve district. A reading above zero indicates improving conditions, while a reading below zero suggests worsening conditions. The index is based on a survey of approximately 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. A stronger-than-forecast reading is generally bullish for the USD, while a weaker-than-forecast reading is typically bearish for the USD.

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The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total work force that is not working, yet actively seeking employment.

A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

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