Economic Week Ahead 21 – 27 April 2024

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index incorporating survey results provided by manufacturing firms throughout the country. A reading above fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is expanding, while a reading below fifty suggests the manufacturing sector is in contraction. Policymakers and traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, rather than waiting for the hard data to emerge. While manufacturing accounts for a far smaller percentage of economic output than services, it is far more cyclical and is therefore a useful indicator of where in the economic cycle the economy is currently situated. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Service PMI release is published monthly by Markit Economics. The data are based on surveys of over 400 executives in private sector service companies. The surveys cover transport and communication, financial intermediaries, business and personal services, computing & IT, hotels and restaurants. 
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an improvement, and below 50 indicates a deterioration. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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New Home Sales measures the annualised number of new single-family homes that were sold during the prior month. When it’s released ahead of Existing Home Sales, this report tends to have more impact because the two reports are highly correlated.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

Wednesday, April 24 2024

Durable Goods Orders reports the change in the total value of new orders for long lasting manufactured goods, including transportation items.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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The Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Crude Oil Inventories measures the weekly change in the number of barrels of commercial crude oil held by US firms. The level of inventories influences the price of petroleum products, which can have an impact on inflation.

If the increase in crude inventories is more than expected, it implies weaker demand and is bearish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is less than expected.
If the increase in crude is less than expected, it implies greater demand and is bullish for crude prices. The same can be said if a decline in inventories is more than expected.

Thursday, 25 April, 2024

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Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the annualised change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary indicator of the economy’s health.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD

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Initial Jobless Claims measures the number of people who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the most timely U.S. economic data, but the market impact varies from week to week.
A reading that is higher than forecast is generally negative (bearish) for the USD, while a lower than forecast reading is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD.

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Bank of Japan (BOJ) policy board publishes its decision about where to set the target overnight rate. As short term interest rates are an important determinant of currency valuation, traders watch interest rate changes closely. A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the JPY, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the JPY.

Friday, 26 April, 2024

The Core PCE price Index is the less volatile measure of the PCE price index which excludes the more volatile and seasonal food and energy prices. The impact on the currency may go both ways, a rise in inflation may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency, on the other hand, during recession, a rise in inflation may lead to a deepened recession and therefore a fall in local currency.

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The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index measures the changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption, excluding food and energy. Unlike the fixed-weight CPI, PCE is chain-weighted and thus adjusts to changing consumer behaviour. Core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and thus receives greater attention.

A reading that is stronger than forecast is generally supportive (bullish) for the USD, while a weaker than forecast reading is generally negative (bearish) for the USD.

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