Key Points:

US ISM manufacturing climbs to 56 from 54.8 expected boosting USD

ECB’s Lane talks down EUR strength

Trump edges ahead of Biden in latest odds for the presidency

The USD remained under pressure into the US open which saw EUR/USD squeeze above 1.20 for the first time since May 2018 reaching a high of 1.2010. It was a brief dalliance which saw sellers push back through key support around 1.1960 to close off 100 pips on the day. ECB’s Lane comments that “the ECB doesn’t target FX rates, but EUR/USD matters” along with a CPI print of -0.2% from 0.2% expected was the double whammy to assist the sell off. From a USD positive point of view a beat on US ISM print gave the dollar a lift and aided the EUR demise. The DXY had sunk to a 2 year low of 91.70 but has now moved back above last week’s support at 92.00/20. Are we on the verge of a correction? Time will tell but US yields remained under pressure whilst US stocks rallied once again. No surprise it’s the tech sector once again that continues to keep these indices buoyant with yet again record closes for the S&P500 and Nasdaq and the Dow Jones up 0.76%.  With US stocks strong the commodity bloc currencies remained well supported vs the likes of EUR and GBP. The latter having tried to reach 1.35 but capped at 1.3481 before following EUR/USD trajectory back to 1.3380. The lack of USD selling for month end also allowed the greenback to steady. Gold jumped to 1992 but failed to hold onto its gains and we saw a slump back to 1963. Yesterday the RBA came and went but with little market impact. Reference to the AUD being the highest in two years wasn’t exactly breaking news however the pair fell back from a high of 0.7414 to 0.7360 during the US session. Today’s GDP data will be the biggest mover for the AUD this week from a domestic front although recent price action has been more volatile around external influences. The Q2 number is expected to be weak around -6% so it will take a much worse number to push the AUD lower where buyers are likely to lurk. Tonight we get the ADP jobs report from the US and will hear from Fed’s Williams and Mester and the BOE’s Haldane and Broadbent so there could be some GBP volatility depending on what comments are made about rates.

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