October 5: Friday close and Weekend Wrap

Key Points:

Trump diagnosed with Covid-19 and taken to hospital for Oxygen

NFP data headlines beat expectations

Pelosi & Mnuchin continue to discuss fiscal stimulus package

Fridays excitement revolved around Trump contracting Coronavirus and the knock on effect should he become unable to fulfill his duties. US stock futures alongside the commodity currencies got hit hardest during the Asian session but bounced back well from their lows with the exception of the Nasdaq that closed -2.22% on the day. The USD gained slightly across the board on the day but still shy of 94.00 as markets digested the Trump news, NFP data, EU/UK Brexit negotiations and the slight hope of an agreement on the US fiscal stimulus package. The NFP data showed a headline beat on the unemployment rate and jobs created but the participation rate was lower taking some of the gloss off of the print. Weekend news has been dominated obviously by Trump and confusing updates as to his situation, although there’s some expectation that he may move back to the White House later on Monday. With the US election 30 days away a new poll from NBC/WSJ puts Biden at 53% to Trump’s 39%, the widest gap so far with women apparently turning against him, however this was prior to his Covid news. Any sympathy votes due to his current condition would be well received. Boris Johnson met with the EU Commission to try and break the deadlock between the current stand off with both sides committing to trying to find a deal before October 15^th cut off deadline. GBP is unchanged this morning at 1.2920 after enduring a wild ride last week. EUR dipped to key support at 1.1695 once again on Friday and found the legs to regain 1.1700 but looks shaky ahead of EU Services PMI out later today. Madrid & Paris amongst other major European cities are moving back in to lockdown and this will weigh heavy on EUR as well this week. New York also restricting some parts of the city once again. Chinese National Day celebrations continue and Sydney will observe a Labour Day public holiday, so we could see a subdued Asian session ahead with eyes on Trump news likely to cause the greatest volatility ahead of the US ISM PMI tonight.

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