October 12: Friday close and Weekend Wrap

October 12: Friday close and Weekend Wrap

Key Points:

Polls showing gap widening with Biden out in front

USD weakens across the board with US stocks higher

European Covid cases soaring as France adds almost 27000 on Saturday

The USD headed into the weekend on the backfoot slipping against all the majors and forcing the DXY back down to close just above 93.00 with critical support nearby at 92.80/85. Risk on was the name of the game with NZD the best performer on the day followed by the AUD and GBP on EU/UK deal hopes. The big data surprise on the day was the Canadian employment numbers showing a gain of 378K vs 150K expected giving the CAD a further lift against a struggling greenback. All major US indices closed higher with Nasdaq best performer at 1.39% and the Dow now officially UP on the year. Gold also broke and held above the 1910 resistance pushing to an intraday high of 1930. US politics to and fro led by Trump is causing confusion among investors but the overall feeling is that a stimulus deal will get done at some point, although what the final agreement will be is up for discussion. Once again Pelosi was out over the weekend stating that there are still large differences in her discussions with Mnuchin. EUR popped 1.18, Cable regained 1.30 and AUD cut through recent resistance at 0.7200/10 indicating a bullish trend and bearish USD for now. Over the weekend the PBoC announced a lowering of reserves required on some forward Yuan trading, causing the CNH to weaken on the open this morning and giving the USD some short term respite in the process. All eyes will be on the CNY fix later today.  We have a public holiday in the US today and expect a quiet session ahead with De Guindos, Panetta, Schnabel and Lagarde all from the ECB speaking during the European session along with BoE’s Haskel & Bailey. With UK/EU Brexit talks continue into 15th October its likely we will see volatility around GBP with any comments kicking the algorithms into life.

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